1. Background
Since the beginning of 2026, prices for printing film materials such as BOPET and BOPP have experienced significant increases. Taking 12μ printing film in East China as an example, the mainstream price was around RMB 7,600–7,800 per ton in early January 2026. By March 12, it had surged to RMB 10,510–11,210 per ton, representing a monthly increase of 40.86% and hitting a new five-year high. BOPP film prices also climbed sharply, with quarterly prices in the European market nearly doubling.
2. Core Reasons for the Price Increase
(1) Geopolitical Tensions Triggering Sharp Crude Oil Fluctuations
The primary driver of this round of price increases comes from dramatic fluctuations on the cost side. At the end of February 2026, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated suddenly, causing international crude oil prices to soar. Brent crude oil once broke through USD 100 per barrel. As the most upstream raw material in the polyester industry chain, crude oil price fluctuations are directly transmitted to intermediates such as PTA and MEG, which in turn push up the prices of polyester chips and films across the board. During this period, PTA futures hit the daily limit multiple times, and the raw material side of BOPET resonated upward.
(2) A Clear Cost Transmission Chain
The cost transmission path for printing film is: Crude Oil → PTA/MEG → Polyester Chips → BOPET/BOPP Film. Taking 12μ printing film as an example, the processing fee for chip-based factories climbed from around RMB 2,000 per ton in early January to RMB 3,064 per ton by mid-March, an increase of more than 50%. The rapid recovery of processing fees reflects film manufacturers’ passive price-following under severe cost pressure.
(3) Industry Self-Discipline and Supply Contraction
In addition to cost-driven factors, active supply contraction on the industry side is also an important factor. Since December 2025, when the industry clearly set its direction of “anti-involution,” BOPET manufacturers have significantly strengthened their willingness to hold prices firm. They planned to arrange centralized maintenance of up to 50% of production capacity during the 2026 Spring Festival to alleviate long-standing supply-demand imbalances. Active production cuts on the supply side provided additional support for upward price movement.
3. Demand-Side Performance
On the demand side, downstream flexible packaging and metallized processing demand showed a seasonal recovery after the Spring Festival, with market inquiries and purchasing enthusiasm increasing. In the first half of 2026, China’s cumulative polyester film exports reached 478,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 23.40%. Strong growth in export markets provided bottom support for film prices.
4. Impact on Downstream Packaging Companies
Current film prices have broken through the RMB 10,000 mark, far exceeding the psychological expectations of downstream stockpiling. Printing, packaging, and metallizing companies are generally trapped in a dilemma of “hard to take orders, hard to stock up.” Since the end-consumer market has limited acceptance of rising packaging costs, profit margins for downstream processors have been severely squeezed. Most companies insist on a low-inventory strategy of “purchasing only as needed.”
5. Market Outlook
Looking ahead, if the Middle East situation does not ease quickly, crude oil prices will remain high, and BOPET cost support will stay strong. However, the market will gradually shift from being cost-driven to being dominated by supply and demand fundamentals, and overall price volatility is expected to be weaker than in the first half of the year. Downstream packaging companies are advised to closely monitor crude oil and PTA price trends, reasonably control inventory levels, and establish closer communication mechanisms with suppliers to cope with business risks brought by price fluctuations.